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Title : Solar Storm Forecasts Improve as Sun’s Fury Increases
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Solar Storm Forecasts Improve as Sun’s Fury Increases

If solar storm raging this week was any indication, the sun is increasing its activity - and scientists will be ready for it. By carefully studying the star of our planet, we are able to predict these space weather events potentially dangerous better than ever.

A huge solar flare erupted on January 23, activation of strong radiation storm in nearly a decade . A wave of charged particles, called coronal mass ejection (CME), bombarded the Earth yesterday (January 24). The bombing is over now, but some minor disruptions in spacecraft and power grids were reported.

forecast of scientists to the arrival of the disturbing wave was out for only 13 minutes, much more accurate than in the past. And with much of networks interconnected world populations increasingly dependent on technology, the ability to predict and monitor meteorological phenomena of potentially harmful space will become more crucial.

it is expected that solar flares and CMEs to increase in frequency as the sun rises of latent cycle 11-year activity phase.

When a CME hits Earth, the result geomagnetic storm interacts with the magnetic field lines on the planet. This not only amplifies the auroras on Earth (lights north and south), but in the case of a strong CME aimed directly toward Earth, can disrupt the operation of the satellites in orbit and power grids and other infrastructure communications on the ground.

"it was an important event in 1989 which led to a major power outage in Quebec that had broad implications for province, "Harlan Spence, an astrophysicist at the University of New Hampshire, to SPACE.com. "Because the world is highly connected networks of energy, the effects of geomagnetic storm in particular also felt across many parts of the US continental"

yesterday CME hit the Earth at an angle, so that the electromagnetic explosion protected largely by the planet's magnetic field. Still, some commercial airlines implemented security measures by rerouting flights over the polar regions of the Earth.

Prediction Center space weather Oceanic and Atmospheric National Administration also recorded some minor disruptions in space and on the ground.

"This is typical with space weather, but what I hear is some instruments science and spacecraft an increase in disorders of single event, "Doug Biesecker, a physicist Prediction Center NOAA space Weather, was observed to SPACE.com. "Some instruments were returning bad data, but this is the kind of things they can handle. Some grids heard reports on the fluctuations, but have no specific information on which grids and where they were."

Biesecker noted that this type of interference are not unusual during intense solar storms, and the rate of reported interruptions has been relatively low. Moreover, new observations show that things seem to be returning to normal.

"After the arrival of a CME yesterday and the subsequent activity that followed, conditions are beginning to build again into a return to calm, "NOAA officials wrote in an update of the website Space Weather Prediction.

scientists are based on several spacecraft including the Solar Dynamics Observatory, the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft and stereo, to constantly monitor the activity of the sun. Scientists use the data from these satellites to model and predictions of solar flares and CMEs .

"Al incorporate information from multiple points of view, we can determine to a very great degree the properties of CME, as its speed and direction, "said Yihua Zheng, chief researcher at the Center for space Weather Center Goddard space Flight NASA Greenbelt, Md. "we put everything in the model and a prediction is obtained."

once scientists understand the strength and path of a CME, you can make predictions about how expulsion could affect things in space and on the ground. As these predictions become more refined, which can act as an early warning system for space weather, much like how forecasters track storms and weather patterns.

" a CME is something like a hurricane space, "Zheng to SPACE.com. "You have to predict how it will form and evolve. From the models, we can see what the spacecraft is on its way and what will be impacted."

to CME yesterday, Zheng and his colleagues at the Space Center weather succeeded in making the most accurate to date when reach Earth predictions.

"We predicted would come at 9:18 am, and actually arrived at 9:31 am, so ours has an error of 13 minutes, "Zheng said. "Typically, for this type of model, the average error is seven hours, so this is the best."

These types of developments indicate how far the field of space weather forecasting has arrived, he added.

solar activity rises and falls in its cycle of 11 years. Currently the sun is coming out of a latent phase of the solar cycle 24, and is expected to star to be more active, more solar flares and CMEs, as it heads towards the so-called solar maximum in 2013.

"If you look back to the last time the sun was entering this state, our physical understanding was much less mature," Spence said. "In the preceding decade we have developed a better understanding, improved techniques, faster computers, faster algorithms, and better real-time capability for data scientists and customers who care about space weather. Ago Certainly , 20, who would be sitting more or less blind, waiting for data to download and prosecution "
Source:. space UnhealthyEarth

"Solar Storm Forecasts Improve as Sun’s Fury Increases", article source: riseearth.com

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